Operasi Ketupat 2025, the national police traffic operation for the Eid al-Fitr exodus and return, ran from 26 March to 8 April 2025. On 7 April the head of the National Police Traffic Corps (Korlantas) said road crashes during the operation had fallen to 2,637 from 3,728 the previous year, about 30 percent, while deaths had fallen 47 percent (CNN Indonesia, 2025). After the operation ended, the Korlantas director of law enforcement put the fall at 31 percent for crashes and 46 percent for fatalities (Nanda, 2025).
That is good news. For companies whose employees travel home for Eid, or whose fleets run through the holiday, how the numbers are read matters as much as the numbers themselves. This article looks at what the data show, how to read them and where their limits lie.
Data Sources
The national figures come from official Korlantas statements quoted in the media on 8 and 14 April 2025 (CNN Indonesia, 2025; Nanda, 2025). The district data we use come from the Magelang police traffic unit for 23 March to 8 April 2025 (Birru, 2025). The picture of travel modes comes from a KedaiKOPI survey of 1,062 Eid travellers, using computer-assisted self-interviewing, carried out from 2 to 8 April 2025 (Ulya, 2025).
What the Figures Show
The difference between 3,728 and 2,637 is 1,091 crashes. Divided by the previous year's figure, the fall is 29.3 percent, rounded to 30 percent in the Korlantas head's statement (CNN Indonesia, 2025). The 31 and 46 percent figures given a week later probably reflect more complete data after the operation closed (Nanda, 2025). Neither source gives the absolute number of deaths.
The district picture can differ. In Magelang district, 27 crashes were recorded during Operasi Ketupat 2025, with 39 people slightly injured and 2 killed, up from 14 crashes with 9 slightly injured and 7 killed in 2024 (Birru, 2025). Crashes almost doubled, yet deaths fell.
Travel patterns shifted as well. The KedaiKOPI survey found 53.4 percent of travellers used public transport, up from 49.2 percent in 2024, and 42 percent used private vehicles. In Greater Jakarta, 53.1 percent of private vehicle users chose motorcycles (Ulya, 2025).
How to Read Them
First, check the period. The 30 percent figure was given before the operation ended and the 31 percent figure afterwards. Comparing numbers from different dates without stating their period can mislead.
Second, a crash count is not the same as risk. In our view a fall in crashes can only be read as a fall in risk when it is set against a measure of exposure, such as the number of trips or kilometres travelled. Those data were not included in the sources we used, so it is not yet possible to say how much of the fall came from safer travel and how much from changes in the number or mode of trips.
Third, small numbers swing. In Magelang, a change from 7 deaths to 2, or from 14 crashes to 27, can be driven by a handful of events. District figures are best read alongside a trend over several years.
Fourth, separate the number of crashes from their severity. Nationally, deaths fell more sharply, about 47 percent, than crashes, which fell about 30 percent (CNN Indonesia, 2025). In our view this may mean the crashes that did occur tended to be less severe, but without a breakdown by vehicle and road type the reason for the gap cannot yet be established.
Limits of the Data
In mid April 2025 the available data were still official statements quoted by the media, not full statistical reports broken down by vehicle type, road type and time of day. The mode survey relies on self-completion by respondents willing to take part, so it may not represent all travellers.
Lessons for Companies
The Haddon matrix helps turn data into action by mapping human, vehicle, physical environment and social environment factors across the phases before, during and after a crash. Runyan (1998) added a third dimension: criteria for choosing between measures, such as effectiveness, cost, equity and feasibility.
- Before the event: record employees' and fleet travel plans, including mode and distance, so the company has its own exposure data.
- During the event: enforce seat belts and standard helmets, especially for employees travelling home by motorcycle.
- After the event: set up a reporting line and emergency assistance that employees can reach during the holiday.
- After Eid: count incidents per trip or per kilometre, not just the number of incidents.
Nusa Safety Support
Nusa Safety can help draw up journey management and incident reporting procedures through its technical guidelines and SOP service, design driving safety material through custom training module development, and set up digital recording of travel and incident data through HSE digitalization. Nusa Safety issues internal training certificates only.
This article is general information and not legal or professional advice for any specific case.
References
- Birru, E. (2025, April 9). Operasi Ketupat 2025: Kecelakaan di Magelang meningkat, 27 insiden terjadi [Operasi Ketupat 2025: Crashes in Magelang rise, 27 incidents recorded]. Kompas.com. https://regional.kompas.com/read/2025/04/09/121108778/operasi-ketupat-2025-kecelakaan-di-magelang-meningkat-27-insiden-terjadi
- CNN Indonesia. (2025, April 8). Korlantas Polri klaim angka kecelakaan turun 30% saat mudik 2025 [Traffic police say crashes fell 30% during the 2025 Eid exodus]. https://www.cnnindonesia.com/otomotif/20250408165740-579-1216860/korlantas-polri-klaim-angka-kecelakaan-turun-30-saat-mudik-2025
- Nanda, A. M. (2025, April 14). Operasi Ketupat 2025 berakhir, angka kecelakaan diklaim turun [Operasi Ketupat 2025 ends with crashes reported down]. Kompas.com. https://otomotif.kompas.com/read/2025/04/14/130049915/operasi-ketupat-2025-berakhir-angka-kecelakaan-diklaim-turun
- Runyan, C. W. (1998). Using the Haddon matrix: Introducing the third dimension. Injury Prevention, 4(4), 302-307. https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.4.4.302
- Ulya, F. N. (2025, April 14). Survei: 53,4 persen pemudik naik angkutan umum, terbanyak pakai bus [Survey: 53.4 percent of Eid travellers used public transport, mostly buses]. Kompas.com. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2025/04/14/19541641/survei-534-persen-pemudik-naik-angkutan-umum-terbanyak-pakai-bus
